Klotzbach, P;
Blake, E;
Camp, J;
Caron, LP;
Chan, J;
Kang, NY;
Kuleshov, Y;
... Zhan, R; + view all
(2019)
Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting.
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
, 8
(3)
pp. 134-149.
10.6057/2019TCRR03.03.
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Abstract
This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity. In addition, several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood. Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April, modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018. Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018. Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins. A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal (e.g., multi-year) timescales is included. Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.6057/2019TCRR03.03 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is an Open Access article published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs (CC BY-NC-ND) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | hurricane, typhoon, tropical cyclone, seasonal forecasting, forecast skill |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Space and Climate Physics |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10083994 |
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