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Assessing the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles from road testing
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Zhao, Xingyu, Robu, Valentin, Flynn, David, Salako, Kizito and Strigini, Lorenzo (2020) Assessing the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles from road testing. In: 2019 IEEE 30th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE), Berlin, Germany, 28-31 Oct 2019 pp. 13-23. ISBN 9781728149820. doi:10.1109/ISSRE.2019.00012 ISSN 2332-6549.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ISSRE.2019.00012
Abstract
There is an urgent societal need to assess whether autonomous vehicles (AVs) are safe enough. From published quantitative safety and reliability assessments of AVs, we know that, given the goal of predicting very low rates of accidents, road testing alone requires infeasible numbers of miles to be driven. However, previous analyses do not consider any knowledge prior to road testing - knowledge which could bring substantial advantages if the AV design allows strong expectations of safety before road testing. We present the advantages of a new variant of Conservative Bayesian Inference (CBI), which uses prior knowledge while avoiding optimistic biases. We then study the trend of disengagements (take-overs by human drivers) by applying Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) to data from Waymo's public road testing over 51 months, in view of the practice of software updates during this testing. Our approach is to not trust any specific SRGM, but to assess forecast accuracy and then improve forecasts. We show that, coupled with accuracy assessment and recalibration techniques, SRGMs could be a valuable test planning aid.
Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > WMG (Formerly the Warwick Manufacturing Group) | ||||||
Publisher: | IEEE | ||||||
ISBN: | 9781728149820 | ||||||
ISSN: | 2332-6549 | ||||||
Book Title: | 2019 IEEE 30th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE) | ||||||
Official Date: | February 2020 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Page Range: | pp. 13-23 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1109/ISSRE.2019.00012 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||||
Title of Event: | 2019 IEEE 30th International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE) | ||||||
Type of Event: | Conference | ||||||
Location of Event: | Berlin, Germany | ||||||
Date(s) of Event: | 28-31 Oct 2019 |
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