Forecasting Using Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices
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Sancetta, Alessio
Nikanrova, Arina
Abstract
We propose a methodological approach to the forecast and evaluation of multivariate distributions with time varying parameters. For reasons related to feasible inference attention is restricted to meta-elliptical distributions. We use our approach for the study of a large data set of 16 commodity prices. Our approach leads to a theory for model validation avoiding common problems caused by discontinuities, time variation of parameters and nuisance parameters.
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Faculty of Economics