ANALYZING EMERGENT BEHAVIOR OF SUPPLY CHAINS FOR PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT IN RESPONSE TO COVID-19

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) revealed weaknesses in supply chains of companies that produce personal protective equipment (PPE), resulting in nationwide shortages. A government-industry collaborative platform between the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) and Helpful Engineering is under development to act as an exchange for material and equipment at each level of the supply chain. The intent of this is to create an online agile production platform (APP) for PPE. There is a need to proactively limit negative interactions with the APP. The creators of the APP constrain bad behavior or abuse of the system using a "bottom up" approach of coding requirements. In tandem, a "top down" approach of the system is modeled using Monterey Phoenix, a behavioral modeling platform. Stakeholders and processes are modeled to show different permutations of interactions. Impossible scenarios are removed with model constraints. The remaining traces are analyzed for emergent behavior and compared with the constraints programmed into the model. Findings of this research include unexpected emergent behavior in two scenarios. One scenario explored delivered quality to the customer, and analysis exposed a gap that allowed counterfeit parts into the APP. The other scenario explored how the APP managed the supply chain. Weaknesses that allowed missed inspections to pass bad parts were also found. The models developed will drive changes that increase confidence in the APP.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited