PREDICTING COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE FROM COORDINATED HOSTILE INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Abstract

The ability to predict conflicts prior to their occurrence can help deter the outbreak of collective violence and avoid human suffering. Existing approaches use statistical and machine learning models, and even social network analysis techniques; however, they are generally confined to long-range predictions in specific regions and are based on only a few languages. Understanding collective violence from signals in multiple or mixed languages in social media remains understudied. In this work, we construct a multilingual language model (MLLM) that can accept input from any language in social media, a model that is language-agnostic in nature. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, it aims to collect a multilingual violence corpus from archived Twitter data using a proposed set of heuristics that account for spatial-temporal features around past and future violent events. And second, it attempts to compare the performance of traditional machine learning classifiers against deep learning MLLMs for predicting message classes linked to past and future occurrences of violent events. Our findings suggest that MLLMs substantially outperform traditional ML models in predictive accuracy. One major contribution of our work is that military commands now have a tool to evaluate and learn the language of violence across all human languages. Finally, we made the data, code, and models publicly available.Outstanding ThesisCommander, Ecuadorian NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited