Grey GERT Network Model of Equipment Lifetime Evaluation Based on Small Samples

Abstract

The reliability evaluation of high reliability and long life equipment is widely concerned in recent decades. Enough failure samples of these kinds of equipment are not easy or economic to obtain in reliability test, in addition, experience information is sometimes inaccurate or uncertainty. To overcome the deficiency in traditional method which requires large numbers of samples, a quantitative analysis model of equipment reliability evaluation is proposed in this paper in view of the few failure data of equipment life tests. GERT network is introduced to describe the kinds of working states of the equipment system and random process of equipment state transition choice after stress impact of single component. Considering the uncertainty and inaccuracy of the statistical data and experience information, the parameters of GERT network are represented by interval grey number. The system equivalent transfer function could be obtained by GERT matrix solving algorithm, and the reliability evaluation of equipment system can be realized. The case study results show that the equipment reliability evaluation Grey-GERT model based on small samples would save much time with little accuracy losing. Besides, the study provides a new thinking for reliability accelerated life test