Evaluating a multi criteria model for hazard and risk assessment in urban design

Abstract

The aim of this research is to test a decisional aid model - the Analytic Hierarchy Procedure (AHP) - in risk assessment for development of an urban area.The Port Authority of Venice commissioned the Regional Environmental Protection Agency (ARPAV) to carry out an estimation of major industrial hazards in Porto Marghera, an industrial estate near Venice (Italy), via Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). However, this model only provided a list of individual quantitative risk values, related to single locations. Therefore, there was both a need and an opportunity to introduce a decision aid model, which could take into account the geographic distribution of risk, the quantification of intangible factors and the analysis of possible future developments.The experimental model, through a series of trade -off comparisons, encouraged the use of expert opinions in conjunction with traditional quantitative analysis, enabling the decision maker to generate quantitative data on risk assessment from a series of subjective, qualitative assessments. It was also a major result to bring together complementary skills and expertise from different disciplines in a wide and clear collaborative research project