Estimating PM_2.5 Concentrations in Xi'an City Using a Generalized Additive Model with Multi-Source Monitoring Data

Abstract

<div><p>Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) represents a severe environmental problem and is of negative impact on human health. Xi'an City, with a population of 6.5 million, is among the highest concentrations of PM_2.5 in China. In 2013, in total, there were 191 days in Xi’an City on which PM_2.5 concentrations were greater than 100 μg/m³. Recently, a few studies have explored the potential causes of high PM_2.5 concentration using remote sensing data such as the MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product. Linear regression is a commonly used method to find statistical relationships among PM_2.5 concentrations and other pollutants, including CO, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃, which can be indicative of emission sources. The relationships of these variables, however, are usually complicated and non-linear. Therefore, a generalized additive model (GAM) is used to estimate the statistical relationships between potential variables and PM_2.5 concentrations. This model contains linear functions of SO₂ and CO, univariate smoothing non-linear functions of NO₂, O₃, AOT and temperature, and bivariate smoothing non-linear functions of location and wind variables. The model can explain 69.50% of PM_2.5 concentrations, with R² = 0.691, which improves the result of a stepwise linear regression (R² = 0.582) by 18.73%. The two most significant variables, CO concentration and AOT, represent 20.65% and 19.54% of the deviance, respectively, while the three other gas-phase concentrations, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃ account for 10.88% of the total deviance. These results show that in Xi'an City, the traffic and other industrial emissions are the primary source of PM_2.5. Temperature, location, and wind variables also non-linearly related with PM_2.5.</p></div