An unsupervised method for estimating the global horizontal irradiance from photovoltaic power measurements

Abstract

The precise calculation of solar irradiance is pivotal for forecasting the electric power generated by PV plants. However, on-ground measurements are expensive and are generally not performed for small and medium-sized PV plants. Satellite-based services represent a valid alternative to on-site measurements, but their space-time resolution is limited. In this paper we present a method for estimating the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more photovoltaic,(PV) systems located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. It can estimate the nominal power and orientation of multiple PV fields, using only the aggregated power signal from their PV power plant. Moreover, if more than one PV power plant is available, the different signals are reconciled using outliers detection and assessing shading patterns for each PV plant. Results from two case studies located in Switzerland are presented here. The performance of the proposed method at estimating GHI is compared with that of free and commercial satellite services. Our results show that the method presented here is generally better than satellite based services, especially at high temporal resolutions