Fuzzy modelling of powder snow avalanches

Abstract

This paper examines powder snow avalanches by introducing a predetermined degree of variation, or fuzziness, in model parameters. Given a value of vagueness in the parameters, fuzzy set theory makes it possible to evaluate the vagueness in the results. The use of a more complex stochastic analysis can be avoided. Six parameters of the model are taken to be affected by a certain amount of uncertainty; the response of the numerical model is calculated by solving the fuzzy equations. In this way, it is possible to evaluate how the results are affected by a given change in the model parameters. The paper first presents a well-known avalanche model and its solution considering the influence of friction. A brief introduction of the fuzzy set is given with regard to the avalanche model mentioned. Later, the fuzzy solution of the model in terms of velocity and average pressure is calculated for three different levels of imprecision in the data. At the end, the results are presented and commented