Industry 4.0 Scenario Planning: How will the industry 4.0 transformations affect SMEs in Germany by 2030?

Abstract

Digitalization is invading every aspect of our lives and modern technologies are at the helm of much disruptive change in all spheres of life. Hailed as the 4th industrial revolution every company has a mind to understand the implications of the Industry 4.0 suit of technologies and their multiple innovative applications for its operations. In this paper, we explore how the industry 4.0 transformation might affect Small and Medium sized enterprises in Germany over a 15-year horizon. We focus on SMEs because they play a significant role in ensuring the prosperity of Germany as a global industrial and economic powerhouse. We develop alternative pictures of the possible futures using the foresight technique of Scenario planning in which the factors that shape the business environment SMEs and indeed all companies operate in are identified and used to build the most plausible alternative realities. The outcome is four distinct scenarios that reflect the possible growth trajectories regarding the impending transformation for SMEs