Sustainable Maintenance Strategy Under Uncertainty in the Lifetime Distribution of Deteriorating Assets

Abstract

In the life-cycle management of systems under continuous deterioration, studying the sensitivity analysis of the optimised preventive maintenance decisions with respect to the changes in the model parameters is of a great importance. Since the calculations of the mean cost rates considered in the preventive maintenance policies are not sufficiently robust, the corresponding maintenance model can generate outcomes that are not robust and this would subsequently require interventions that are costly. This chapter presents a computationally efficient decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for a maintenance optimisation problem for systems/structures/assets subject to measurable deterioration using the Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (PEVPI) concept. Furthermore, this sensitivity analysis approach provides a framework to quantify the benefits of the proposed maintenance/replacement strategies or inspection schedules in terms of their expected costs and in light of accumulated information about the model parameters and aspects of the system, such as the ageing process. In this paper, we consider random variable model and stochastic Gamma process model as two well-known probabilistic models to present the uncertainty associated with the asset deterioration. We illustrate the use of PEVPI to perform sensitivity analysis on a maintenance optimisation problem by using two standard preventive maintenance policies, namely age-based and condition-based maintenance policies. The optimal strategy of the former policy is the time of replacement or repair and the optimal strategies of the later policy are the inspection time and the preventive maintenance ratio. These optimal strategies are determined by minimising the corresponding expected cost rates for the given deterioration models’ parameters, total cost and replacement or repair cost. The robust optimised strategies to the changes of the models’ parameters can be determined by evaluating PEVPI’s which involves the computation of multi-dimensional integrals and is often computationally demanding, and conventional numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation techniques would not be helpful. To overcome this computational difficulty, we approximate the PEVPI using Gaussian process emulators