Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision

Abstract

The study by Jonas et al. (2014) has received interest, notably by the Austrian Climate Research Programme [ACRP], regarding the use of the results at national scales. Jonas et al. discuss diagnostic (retrospective: looking back in time) and prognostic (prospective: looking forward in time) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework that allows any country to understand its near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context which includes all countries and stipulates global warming to range between 2 and 4 °C. To achieve this understanding, the study established national linear emission target paths (e.g., from 1990 to 2050) that are globally consistent. In this systems context, cumulative emissions until 2050 are constrained and globally binding but are uncertain (i.e., they can be estimated only imprecisely); and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target in 2050 and beyond will be achieved is also uncertain. In a nutshell, the emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework can be used to monitor a country’s performance - past as well as prospective achievements - in complying with a future warming target in a quantified uncertainty-risk context. Our working paper (i) recalls the background of the study by Jonas et al. in a condensed but comprehensive manner; and (ii) provides a detailed description of the study’s input and output data which have been updated in the meantime. The paper uses Austria as a case country, while placing it in a European and global context