Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach:A novel approach

Abstract

An accurate medium term load forecast (MTLF) is essential for expansion planning studies of distribution systems. Also the mid-term electric load as a function of time has a complex nonlinear behavior which makes the ordinary linear prediction methods seems insufficient. In this paper, a combination of multi linear regression and principle components analysis is used to predict weekly electrical peak load of Yazd city distribution system. According to the prediction results, main benefits of proposed method are simplicity of calculations and high accuracy forecasting for multi-horizon predictions. MATLAB© is used to implement the forecaster model