Impact of Forecasting Models Errors in a Peer-to-Peer Energy Sharing Market

Abstract

The use of energy sharing models in smart grids has been widely addressed in the literature. However, feasible technical solutions that can deploy these models into reality, as well as the correct use of energy forecasts are not properly addressed. This paper proposes a simple, yet viable and feasible, solution to deploy energy management systems on the end-user-side in order to enable not only energy forecasting but also a distributed discriminatory-price auction peer-to-peer energy transaction market. This work also analyses the impact of four energy forecasting models on energy transactions: a mathematical model, a support-vector machine model, an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model, and a TabNet model. To test the proposed solution and models, the system was deployed in five small offices and three residential households, achieving a maximum of energy costs reduction of 10.89% within the community, ranging from 0.24% to 57.43% for each individual agent. The results demonstrated the potential of peer-to-peer energy transactions to promote energy cost reductions and enable the validation of auction-based energy transactions and the use of energy forecasting models in today’s buildings and end-users.This article is a result of the project RETINA (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000062), supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), and by Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under grants 2021.07754.BD and CEECIND/01179/2017.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio