A Toolkit for uncertainty reasoning and representation using fuzzy set theory in PROLOG expert systems

Abstract

This thesis examines the issue of uncertainty reasoning and representation in expert systems. Uncertainty and expert systems are defined. The value of uncertainty in expert systems as an approximation of human reasoning is stressed. Five alternative methods of dealing with uncertainty are explored. These include Bayesian probabilities, Mycin confirmation theory, fuzzy set theory, Dempster-Shafer\u27s theory of evidence and a theory of endorsements. A toolkit to apply uncertainty processing in PROLOG expert systems is developed using fuzzy set theory as the basis for uncertainty reasoning and representation. The concepts of fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning are utilized in the implementation. The toolkit is written in C-PROLOG for the PYRAMID UNIX system at the Rochester Institute of Technology