Scientific Knowledge and Scientific Uncertainty in Bushfire and Flood Risk Mitigation: Literature Review

Abstract

This report was funded by the bushfire & natural hazards cooperative research centre (BNHCRC) as part of the ‘scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy and planning’ project. This project is a collaboration between the Institute for Culture and Society at the University of Western Sydney, and the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard