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The study of forest re activity, in its several aspects, is essencial to understand the
phenomenon and to prevent environmental public catastrophes. In this context the
analysis of monthly number of res along several years is one aspect to have into
account in order to better comprehend this tematic. The goal of this work is to analyze
the monthly number of forest res in the neighboring districts of Aveiro and Coimbra,
Portugal, through dynamic factor models for bivariate count series. We use a bayesian
approach, through MCMC methods, to estimate the model parameters as well as to
estimate the common latent factor to both series
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