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Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London
Doi
Abstract
With demand for air travel continuing to rise, its climate impacts are expected to
increase dramatically and will be of continuing concern to decision makers. There is
also a need to better understand the ways a changing climate may impact on air
transport, both operationally and economically. This will influence safety, efficiency and
future environmental impacts and is important in the development of mitigation policies.
This thesis investigates a new angle, the implications of climate change for the UK
aviation sector, with an aim to understand the impacts of changes in weather-related
delays and severe weather events, using a case study of London’s Heathrow airport.
Statistical analysis of delay and weather data was used to identify the key weather
parameters associated with weather-related delays at Heathrow and their level of
impact. Seven climate models were used to calculate forecast changes in weather
parameters in 2050 for three emission scenarios. These changes were then used to
derive an estimate of weather-related delay frequency and the level of impact in 2050.
The vulnerabilities of UK air traffic operations to changes in the frequency and severity
of extreme weather events, associated with climate change, were identified and
analysed using the example of a simulated short closure of Heathrow airport with
associated cancellations and diversions.
This thesis additionally explored how sector response to extreme weather events and
changing climate conditions could influence the climate impact of air transport.
Changes in CO2 emissions due to large system disruption are assessed. Possible
changes in wind speed and direction were also examined, as these can affect flight
times and trajectories, and so influence fuel use and hence CO2 emission
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